Arroyo Must Not Miss a Step

You've got to love the Philippines. When the Estrada administration was evicted from the Malacanang Palace, it left behind not only a ballooning budget deficit of 190 billion pesos (US$3.85 billion), but also a number of clandestine listening devices. The bugs were concealed in air conditioners, table lamp sockets and, of course, chandeliers. They were discovered because they blew up one by one!

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the pint-sized President of the Philippines, is said to be a talented ballroom dancer. She cannot afford to miss a single step in her task of staving off the economic and social crisis facing the country and its 75 million people.

The financial markets have given her the thumbs up. The peso bounced from 55 to the US dollar to 47 and the punctured stock market has been slightly re-inflated. However, wouldn't you know, the economy is heavily dependent on electronics, especially mobile phones. The Philippines is more vulnerable to a severe US slowdown than any other economy in Asia. Tentative predictions of 3.8% GDP growth this year would be crunched in a hard American landing.

Gloria Arroyo has a lot of goodwill - and charisma to burn. The 53-year-old looked about half that age at her inauguration. She was a schoolgirl when her father, Diosdado Macapagal, held the presidency from 1961 to 1965, only to be replaced by the despot, Ferdinand Marcos. Her qualifications for the job are rock solid. Arroyo holds a doctorate in economics and she attended Georgetown University in Washington - where she survived the experience of meeting Bill Clinton when they were both undergraduates. She served in the cabinet of President Cory Aquino, and worked closely with former president, Fidel Ramos, helping in the drafting of 55 economic bills that were the cornerstone of his successful time in office.

The economic blueprint drawn up for the inevitable "100-Day" action plan demonstrates a return to consensus government that was a hallmark of the Ramos era. At its centre is a scheme to speed up construction of labour-intensive public work projects and to find jobs for underclass workers. The plan also echoes one launched by the Macapagal administration, which lifted economic growth, but got bogged down by graft and patronage.

Arroyo will soon sign an executive order banning presidential relatives, cabinet members and other presidential appointees from bidding in any auction of state assets in the crucial privatisation program.

The problem for the new president is that she has to fight a battle on several fronts. Her first priority is to root out corruption and strengthen the rule of law. Abductions have become commonplace in the Philippines and it is relatively easy for anyone of power and influence to have an enemy arrested. One of Arroyo's first speaking engagements was addressing the army at the military headquarters in Manila. There have been sporadic rumours of a coup, and certainly there is dissension in the ranks.

Arroyo at least has a realistic chance of ridding the government of the influence of the Marcos cronies and crooks who have crept back over the past two years. They tainted the administration of Estrada - who showed himself only too willing to be tainted.